Law of Total Probability

Theorem

Given a set of events {Bi}i=1n which partition the sample space, and some event A, we have that:

P(A)=i=1nP(ABi)=i=1nP(ABi)P(Bi).

This can be intuitively thought of as the partition of the whole space yielding a partition of A:

and then the probability of A calculated by summing the part in each set within the partition

Proof

The result follows very simply from the ability to split the measure across a disjoint union:

P(A)=P(˙i=1n(ABi))=i=1nP(ABi),

and hence, the result we must prove that ABi and ABj are disjoint for ij.

This is because:

(ABi)(ABj)=(AA)(BiBj)=A=

where BiBj= from the assumption that {Bi}i=1n partitions the sample space.